Graham proposed seven filters to evaluate the suitability of a stock for defensive investors. Let’s examine each one in detail:
Adequate Size of the Enterprise
Graham advised investing in companies with a sufficient scale of operations, believing that large, established firms are generally more stable and less prone to sudden downturns.
Modern Interpretation:
Focus on large-cap or strong mid-cap companies with stable revenue, broad market presence, and consistent operations. These firms typically withstand economic volatility better than smaller, untested companies.
Strong Financial Condition
A healthy balance sheet is crucial. Graham recommended:
This ensures the company can meet its obligations even in tough times.
Modern Interpretation:
Look for a solid current ratio (above 2), low debt-to-equity ratio, and sufficient cash reserves. Strong financial condition reduces the risk of default or distress.
Earnings Stability
The company should have positive earnings in each of the last 10 years. This reflects operational consistency and eliminates companies with volatile or unpredictable performance.
Modern Interpretation:
Use financial statements to check for sustained profitability over a long period. Avoid firms with frequent losses or erratic earnings patterns.
Dividend Record
A company must have paid uninterrupted dividends for at least 20 years. This signifies a shareholder-friendly approach and long-term financial strength.
Modern Interpretation:
While 20 years may be a high bar today, consistent dividend payouts over 5–10 years can be considered acceptable. Ensure dividends are supported by earnings and free cash flow.
Earnings Growth
Graham looked for a minimum increase of at least one-third in per-share earnings over the last 10 years.
Modern Interpretation:
This equates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 2.9% or more in EPS over a decade. While modest, it ensures steady progress and avoids stagnation.
Moderate Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio
The stock’s P/E ratio should not exceed 15 times the average earnings of the past 3 years. This ensures the investor doesn’t overpay.
Modern Interpretation:
Avoid overvalued stocks based on market hype. Use average P/E comparisons within the sector and consider the company’s earnings consistency and potential.
Moderate Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio
Graham recommended that the product of the P/E and P/B ratios should not exceed 22.5. This rule combines earnings and asset valuation for a conservative assessment.
Formula:
Modern Interpretation:
While this ratio may vary across sectors (like banks vs tech), it remains a useful screening tool to avoid overpriced or overhyped stocks.